# The Framework

Previous section Livestock production systems and the main environmental challenges

The Changing importance of different production systems

The rapid increase in demand for meat and milk over the next decades is likely to cause a dramatic shift in the relative importance of the main production systems in their contribution to global meat and milk supply:

- The growth potential for extensive grazing and roughage production is limited. In response to increased population pressure, good pasture land is being converted into cropland, leaving increasingly poorer land for grazing and mixed farming. Industrial production from pigs, poultry and beef is therefore likely to increase relative to production from grazing and mixed farming systems. Past trends and future projections (Table 1.3) clearly point in that direction. One relatively unknown factor in this discussion is the effect of global trade reform combined with a strongly growing demand for feed grains. The first projections of the effect of trade reforms (Alexandratos, 1995) show that cereal prices will increase more than milk and meat prices. This, combined with the increased demand for feed grains, will certainly lead to higher feed prices. Although this would seem to favour grass-based production, the limited growth potential of grazing and mixed farming systems, combined with significant potential for improvements in feed conversion efficiency, will probably result in continued strong growth of the industrial system;
- Pork and broiler (poultry) meat production will increase, relative to beef production (Table 1.3). This is a direct result of the better feed efficiency of pigs and poultry;
- Livestock production is therefore likely to become more crop-based. Furthermore, as it is generally less expensive to transport and store grain than the corresponding amount of meat, intensive livestock production will move nearer to urban centres;
- Growth will be mainly in Asia and Africa (Table 1.2). In Asia growth will be very fast as meat demand almost triples till the year 2020;
- For various reasons, including higher energy prices and less stringent pollution controls, livestock production in the industrial world is likely to move to warmer areas. For example, over the last decade, pig and poultry production has grown faster in Mediterranean countries than in northern Europe, and in the southern rather than the northern United States of America;
- In the developing world, aided by the recent availability of better disease control technologies, there has been a strong shift in production from the arid zones and the highlands to the more humid zones. For example, over the last two decades, millions of cattle were moved into the more humid savannas in Africa, Latin America and India.

Table 1.3 Past and expected growth of different types of meat.
Product | World | Developing World | Developed World
| Annual Growth Rate (%) over 1983-1993) | Total Growth (%) over 1990-2020 | Total Growth (%) over 1990-2020
Beef | 1.5 | 101-170 | 11-14
Pork | 3.0 | 131-225 | 12-16
Poultry meat | 4.5 | 126-211 | 30-31
Sources: Sere and Steinfeld, 1996 and IFPRI, 1995.

These changes will have a major effect on the nature and degree of the livestock-environment interactions. Implications are:

- a shift from relatively closed systems, in which its waste products are being used within the system, to a more open system in which its waste products are not returned; and
- a move from systems with good opportunities for synergies and win-win situations, such as the conservation and use of indigenous livestock breeds, nutrient recycling and livestock-wild life integration, to systems where the opportunities for such win-win situations are much more limited.

Next section The conceptual models: Driving Force-State-Response and Induced Innovation Frameworks

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